How the model works.
No gut feelings. No hot takes. A projection system with one job: find spreads where the market is wrong.
Every team gets a rating built from game results, regressed toward the mean so three good weeks don't create a false god. College ratings adjust for strength of schedule.
Team-specific home field (some stadiums are worth 4 points, not 2.5), key injuries, rest days, and weather get layered onto the raw projection.
The model projects its own spread. If it differs from the market line by 2+ points, that's a pick. Anything less is noise, and we don't publish noise.
Every pick is logged before kickoff with the line we saw. After the game, it's graded win, loss, or push. The record is the record.
01What we don't do
No parlays. No "locks." No deleting losers. We publish spread picks only. Our totals model is still in development and won't appear here until it clears our bar.